TJX stock forecast, quote, news & analysis

Key Takeaways

• TJX shares closed at $152.11 on August 14, 2026, up about 0.8% from $150.97 roughly 30 calendar days earlier, keeping the move in modest-consolidation territory.
• The stock remains below its 52-week high of $170.00 and below both its 50-day moving average near $157.63 and its 200-day moving average near $156.73.
• Fiscal 2027 first-quarter results, reported May 20, 2026, exceeded expectations with EPS of $1.19 versus $1.02 estimated and revenue of $14.32 billion, up 9.2% year over year.
• Management issued full-year fiscal 2027 EPS guidance of $5.08 to $5.15 and second-quarter EPS guidance of $1.15 to $1.17.
• Analyst sentiment remains broadly positive, with an average price target near $178, while the company pays a quarterly dividend of $0.48 per share.
• Institutional investors own roughly 91% of shares outstanding, and the next quarterly earnings report is scheduled for August 19, 2026.

Current Market Snapshot

TJX has spent recent weeks trading in a consolidation range near the low $150s. The latest completed close of $152.11 compares with $150.97 about 30 calendar days earlier, a gain of approximately 0.8%. Over a longer window, shares are up roughly 3% from a mid-May close near $147.35, though they have pulled back from a mid-June high above $168 and a late-July rebound near $161.63.

The stock currently sits below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, a sign that short-term momentum has cooled despite solid underlying fundamentals. With a market capitalization near $168 billion and a beta of about 0.62, TJX behaves as a relatively defensive large-cap name. The central market debate is whether its premium valuation, roughly 29 times trailing earnings, is justified by the company's consistent share gains in off-price retail.

The TJX Companies (TJX) Business Overview and Competitive Position

The TJX Companies is a leading off-price apparel and home fashions retailer operating banners including T.J. Maxx, Marshalls, HomeGoods, Homesense, Sierra, Winners in Canada, and T.K. Maxx in Europe and Australia. The company sources excess, canceled, or overproduced branded merchandise from thousands of vendors and sells it at prices generally 20% to 60% below department and specialty store regular prices.

Its flexible, opportunistic buying model supports a rapidly changing, treasure-hunt shopping experience that keeps inventory fresh and encourages repeat visits. Major reporting segments include Marmaxx, HomeGoods, TJX Canada, and TJX International. Competitive strengths include global vendor relationships, buying scale, efficient distribution, and strong cash generation that funds dividends and share repurchases. Investors follow TJX as a bellwether for value-conscious consumer spending and inventory availability across the retail supply chain.

Recent Developments Driving TJX

The most significant verified development in the recent period was the fiscal 2027 first-quarter report on May 20, 2026. TJX posted EPS of $1.19, ahead of the $1.02 consensus, on revenue of $14.32 billion, which also exceeded expectations and rose 9.2% year over year. Management reaffirmed full-year fiscal 2027 EPS guidance of $5.08 to $5.15 and guided second-quarter EPS to $1.15 to $1.17, with second-quarter revenue expected between $15.0 billion and $15.1 billion.

Analyst activity following the report was largely supportive. Firms including Barclays, BTIG Research, Robert W. Baird, JPMorgan, Evercore, and Wells Fargo reiterated constructive ratings, with several raising price targets; the consensus average target stood near $177.94. On the income side, TJX declared a quarterly dividend of $0.48 per share, a yield of about 1.3% at recent prices. SEC filings also showed active institutional positioning, with ownership near 91%, while insiders sold a limited number of shares over a recent three-month span, a routine diversification pattern rather than a company-level signal.

Cost pressures remain part of the narrative. Management and analysts have flagged elevated fuel costs and store wage expenses as potential SG&A headwinds, even as the company plans merchandise-margin growth and continued comparable-sales gains of 2% to 3%.

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2026 Outlook and What Investors Should Watch

The next key catalyst is the fiscal 2027 second-quarter report scheduled for August 19, 2026. Consensus expectations center on EPS near $1.18 and revenue near $15.1 billion, and investors will watch comparable-sales growth, merchandise margin, gross margin, and SG&A leverage against management's guidance.

Beyond earnings, the broader 2026 themes include consumer discretionary spending, the durability of value-seeking behavior, availability of branded inventory in the marketplace, and cost items such as fuel and store wages. International performance across TJX Canada and TJX International, e-commerce growth, and the pace of share repurchases and dividend growth will also shape the outlook. With the stock trading at a premium multiple, execution and guidance revisions are likely to matter as much as top-line growth.

Disclaimer

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